Why Corona Virus is Absolutely Un-like the Flu
A REBUTTAL: WHY CORONA VIRUS IS ABSOLUTELY UN-LIKE THE FLU. (For those of you seeing misinformed posts comparing them on your page or other's pages, feel free to cut and paste any and all of the below - no attribution required - though feel free to blame me :))
BACKDROP: You've seen them: the comparison tables of deaths from the flu and various other killers like malaria, car accidents, etc.
At first glimpse, it might give you pause that CO-19 has *only* killed 60,000 so far in the world and *only* 7,000 people in our country. But COVID is far, far different. Below is a gentle rebuttal for you to use in your conversations - keeping in mind that most of the people that are posting / discussing this paradox are frustrated, stressed and don't fully understand the nature of exponential math nor the REAL crisis (hospital system collapse). Hopefully, the below will help a few more people understand the dire consequences of not following the social distancing recommendations.
A LITTLE ABOUT THE FLU FIRST: Flu is a terrible annual illness peaking in the winter months with 10 - 50 million in the USA affected each year and ~200MM - 1 billion affected around the globe. So... why is everyone freaking out about COVID and not making news about these other causes of death? Isn't it just media hype? Why can't the young and healthy just go back to work?
feel free to copy-paste the info between the dashed lines:
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HOW COVID-19 IS DIFFERENT THAN THE FLU - THE SHORT ANSWER:
CO-19 Has 3 main drivers that make it different and vastly more dangerous than the flu. In reverse order of importance here they are:
3. CO-19 is 5 to 15 times more deadly than the flu. (This is the least important factor.)
2. CO-19 is between 4 to 8 times more contagious than the flu. (2nd most important factor)
1. CO-19 has a vastly longer (~2.5X longer) asymptomatic (no symptoms) incubation period than the flu AND almost double the number of asymptomatic carriers than the flu spreading it around without knowing it. (This is the most important factor and the REAL reason we are all inside)
SHORT CONCLUSION: Due to the 3 factors above this virus grows exponentially in a way never seen before in modern history. Measles are far more infectious, Ebola far more deadly, but the combination of the 3 elements above means that this illness spreads FAR FASTER than any known illness in history and without distancing to slow it, will cripple hospital systems, leading not just to death by COVID, but to death from ANYTHING. Overwhelmed hospitals means that ALL lifesaving treatments are put on hold and people will die from heart attacks, cancer, car accidents, falls in the tub - any and everything - at vastly higher rates. STAY INSIDE, STAY SAFE!
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Footnotes and details:
*3. The CFR (Case Fatality Rate) for the flu is widely accepted to be approximately 0.1%. The CFR for H1N1 or swine flu - 0.02%. The CFR for CO-19 is widely debated with initial estimates of 3.4% in China, even higher rates in Italy and much lower rates in Germany. The current estimates (based on the only real controlled situation where everyone was tested) come from the Princess cruise ship and most experts agree that the rate is somewhere between 0.5% and 1.5% which is 5 to 15 times more deadly than the flu and 25 to 75 times more deadly than H1N1
*2. The Ro or R factor (basic reproduction number indicating the rate of transmission) for COVID is estimated to be between R2 to R3 - meaning that the average infected person passes it to 2 to 3 people. The R factor for the measles is around R12 to R18 - vastly more infectious (but we have a vaccine). The R factor for the flu is R1.28 so CO-19 is somewhere between 4 and 8 times more infectious than the flu. It is also more infectious than the 1918 flu (R1.8) and H1N1 (R1.46).
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/…/data-suggest-ncov-more-infectio…
*1. Flu patients feel the symptoms very swiftly - often the first day and on average within 2 days (H1N1 ~3 days) and hence they self-quarantine naturally because they feel terrible and don't want to be around other people or be out and about. Studies suggest that about 16% of flu patients are asymptomatic (have no symptoms). CO-19 patients may not feel symptoms for up to 11 days, and on average feel the first symptoms after 5 days - 2.5 times longer than the flu. Studies suggest the asymptomatic case rate for COVID is around 25% - about 60% greater than the flu.
https://www.medscape.com/…/what-is-the-incubation-period-of…
https://www.contagionlive.com/…/case-study-shows-asymptomat…
DEFINING THE REAL PROBLEM PT. 1: EXPONENTIAL GROWTH. The real problem with COVID is that it hides in plain sight and without universal testing, we have NO WAY OF KNOWING WHO HAS IT. If you get, you don't know it for ~5 days vs. ~2 with the flu, and ~25% won't EVER KNOW they have it (vs. ~15% for the flu) and will walk around contagious for about 2 weeks! Also, NO ONE on the planet is immune - no one - this is why they call it the "Novel" Coronavirus. Because of this and its higher contagion rate, it grows exponentially at 33% a day unchecked. So just one infected person grows to over a billion in just over 2 months. See CHART 2 below:
THE REAL PROBLEM PT. 2: HOSPITAL SYSTEM COLLAPSE Even with an approximately 10X greater death rate than the flu, this still doesn't scratch the surface on the most significant element of this crisis: DEATH TO ALL due to hospital system collapse. Approximately 20% of CO-19 patients require hospitalization and approximately 5% need intensive care in the ICU usually requiring a ventilator. We don't have enough beds, staff, PPE and ventilators in the world, this country or any given city for a full bloom of CO-19. Also, as healthcare professionals get sick, we run the risk of having an ever smaller, ever more-at-risk overworked staff. Even with aggressive distancing actions Italy and Spain and now NY are overwhelmed and many other states and cities will follow and non-directly rated CO-19 deaths will escalate. See CHART 3 below for the US capacity gap:
A SCARY STORY OF HOW THIS MIGHT HAVE GONE DOWN: One year ago, on a Monday, my father went in for a routine physical. The doctor didn't like the sound of his heart, so the next day on Tuesday, he went in for a series of tests including an EKG. They didn't like those so they had him come in for an MRI on Wednesday where they discovered blockages in all 4 arteries, and a bad valve. They scheduled him to show up the next morning at 6am for open-heart surgery - a quadruple bypass and a valve replacement - a six-hour marathon surgery utilizing 3 or more staff and then dozens of others over the next week of recovery. I was fortunate to be able to fly there and along with my mother be by my father's side for the whole ordeal. We learned later that on the way to the operating room that Thursday morning my father had a heart attack and his heart stopped - this before any real invasive action. Fortunately, they already had some of the machinery in place and were able to jumpstart his heart just a few moments later and he went on to a full and total recovery with the amazing care and time of the staff.
LET'S CONSIDER HOW THIS MIGHT HAVE GONE DOWN: If this were to happen in a couple of weeks when COVID is at its peak:
1. My father's physical would have been deemed non-essential and pushed back - meaning he would have a heart attack.
2. If he had had the physical, the EKG and MRI's would likely have been pushed back - meaning he would have had a heart attack.
3. If he had had the heart attack, my mother would have called 911. There may or may not have been an ambulance available so she might have had to rush him to the hospital herself if she were able to get him into the car. Had he survived the trip, he would have been waiting in a long line of other ER emergencies, most likely wouldn't have gotten care in time, and he'd likely have died in the waiting room.
4. Due to the risk of infection, the hospital would have been quarantined and my mother would not have been allowed in, meaning my father would have died alone, along with so many others, all of them casualties - directly or indirectly of the crisis of COVID-19. See Chart 4 for Utah's capacity gap.
Please feel free to share corrections or observations.
PS: One last footnote. The survival rate for this illness is likely 99%. We will get through this, treatments and vaccines will be created and all of this will be behind us soon. I do think the world will be forever changed and hopefully in good ways. Tomorrow I'll do my best at a prediction on what to expect.